Original title: demand or release of second-hand houses in 18 cities after a year-on-year decrease of 50% from January to February
Beijing News (reporter Zhang Xiaolan) on February 28, Shell Research Institute released the second-hand housing monthly report of key cities in February. According to the report, from January to February, the trading volume of second-hand houses in key 18 cities decreased by 55% year on year. In the case that both the transaction and the sales are stagnant, the owners have lowered their expectations and suspended the sale of houses, and the customers are not enthusiastic about buying houses. With the gradual resumption of work and the support of favorable policies, it is expected that there will be a wave of centralized release of demand after the end of the epidemic.
The average price of second-hand houses in Beijing fell for two months in a row
Affected by the epidemic, the resumption of work was delayed. In February, the second-hand house transactions of key 18 city chain houses fell into freezing point, among which Wuhan chain houses closed zero in February. From January to February, the trading volume of second-hand houses in key 18 cities dropped 55% year on year.
From the perspective of cities, from January to February, the volume of second-hand housing transactions in Langfang, Hefei, Chongqing, Changsha, Wuhan, Tianjin and Yantai all decreased by more than 60% year-on-year, while the volume of second-hand housing transactions in Guangzhou, Qingdao and Shenzhen was relatively small, with a decrease of less than 40% year-on-year.
On this basis, the impact of the epidemic on housing prices began to show. According to the report, as there was no transaction in Wuhan in February, except for Wuhan, the price of second-hand houses in 12 of the 17 key cities in February fell month on month, an increase of 3 from January. Among them, the average transaction price of second-hand houses in Beijing, Dalian, Qingdao and Xi'an fell month on month for two consecutive months.
The growth of online customers is obvious, and the proportion of house prices reduced by owners is increasing
According to the report, the demand for house purchase by customers still exists, and the growth of online customers is obvious. Chengdu's new passenger source data is greatly affected by the business. In addition to Chengdu, the new passenger source of key 17 city chain households in February decreased by 2.8% month on month, increased by 61.9% year-on-year, and the overall year-on-year increase from January to February was 57%. The main source of new tourists is online growth, accounting for 70.9%, 17 percentage points higher than last year's average level.
Owners are expected to be more affected by the epidemic, with a significant decline in new supply. In February, the number of newly listed houses decreased by 52.2% month on month, 74% year on year, and 55.7% year on year from January to February. Wuhan was the most affected city, with 86.9% decrease in new listings on a month on month basis and 78.4% decrease from January to February on a year-on-year basis.
From the perspective of price adjustment behavior, the proportion of price reduction in February price adjustment increased by 3.8 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the proportion of price reduction in 8 cities out of 18 cities increased, 7 cities more than last month.
Industry: the epidemic will not change the long-term supply and demand trend of each city
In the case of transaction decline and stagnation, the impact of the epidemic on the second-hand housing market began to show gradually. However, the demand for house purchase is different from the ordinary fast-moving consumption, which will not disappear because of time. The report points out that from February 17 to February 23, the newly increased number of customers in 18 key cities recovered to 70% of the weekly average level in December last year. With the gradual resumption of work and the support of favorable policies, it is expected that a wave of demand will be released after the end of the epidemic.
However, the pace of recovery of new supply is slower than that of demand. According to the survey data of the shell Research Institute, 73.7% of the respondents who have plans to sell houses said that they have suspended the plans because of the market uncertainty, and it is expected that the new supply may take longer to recover to the pre epidemic level. However, the proportion of people who want to exchange cash and worry about the decline of house prices is not high, 11.4% and 14.9% respectively. Affected by the epidemic, the recovery degree and recovery speed vary in different regions. The epidemic may cause short-term changes in the supply and demand of cities in the future, but it will not change the long-term supply and demand trend.
Beijing News reporter Zhang Xiaolan
Editor in charge: Zhao Huifang