. At present, governments and central banks are paying close attention to the development of the situation and have begun to take necessary measures to prevent and control the epidemic and stabilize the economy. So, how will the epidemic affect global production and trade, and then affect the prospects of the global economy? Will the US, the largest economy, cut interest rates further in the future? Is the 11 year bull market in US equities facing an end? With the overseas market shaking to the brink of collapse, how to judge the trend of China's stock market and bond market?
In this context, the Shanghai Alumni Association of Nanjing University Business School held the online theme activity of "global macro situation under the impact of the epidemic" at 19 p.m. on March 18, inviting Dr. Sun Mingchun, guest professor of Shanghai Senior Financial College and chief economist of Haitong international, to share the theme. The activity was released through alumni circle, and alumni registered enthusiastically.
The views shared by Professor Sun in this lecture are as follows:
1. The global crisis may have arrived. The new crown epidemic has evolved into a global "pandemic" and public health crisis. Major global economies may enter recession in 1-2 quarters, and the fluctuation of global financial market has reached the crisis level.
2. Focus on the nonlinear evolution of global crisis. Whether the epidemic crisis will turn into humanitarian crisis, political crisis and international relations crisis needs close attention.
3. If a gentleman does not set up a wall of danger, he will seek survival first and then development. Maybe there will be better investment opportunities in this year. Professor Sun mentioned "Merrill Lynch clock" and short-term technical asset allocation. In the macro-economic downturn, asset allocation shows the order of bonds, cash, stocks and commodities; in the recovery period, it is the order of stocks, commodities, bonds and cash.
The alumni actively interacted in the lecture and gained a lot. The Shanghai Alumni Association of Nanjing University Business School will continue to organize relevant activities to bring more ideological conflicts to all alumni. At that time, interested alumni are welcome to actively participate.
Writer and editor: Liu siyao