Author brief introduction
Yang Zhihui, male, PhD, business school, Nanjing University;
Li Xiaochun, male, professor and doctoral supervisor of Business School of Nanjing University.
abstract
Under the background of the country's implementation of the Rural Revitalization Strategy, H-T model is expanded by introducing pollution control and production efficiency indicators, and a three sector dual economic theoretical model is constructed. From the perspective of consumer utility, the impact of agricultural pollution control and production efficiency improvement on urban and rural employment is examined. Theoretical research finds that: increasing agricultural pollution control will increase the employment of urban and rural sectors; improving the efficiency of agricultural labor production will increase the employment of modern agricultural sectors, but the impact on the employment of other sectors is uncertain; there is a certain substitution between good environment and high wages, people can tolerate a small drop in wages when enjoying good environment. After that, we use 2008-2017 provincial panel data to verify the theoretical research results. Based on the verification of the theoretical research results, we further get that: the increase of agricultural labor production efficiency will make the overall number of urban and rural employment slightly decrease, reflecting that the increase of agricultural labor production efficiency has a higher income effect, but on the whole, it has a certain crowding out effect on employment In addition, when the agricultural production efficiency is lower, the role of agricultural environmental governance in promoting rural employment is greater; when the agricultural environmental governance is worse, the role of agricultural production efficiency improvement in promoting agricultural employment is greater, indicating that environmental pollution control and production efficiency improvement interact in the employment role, and the improvement of agricultural overall environmental technical efficiency is one of the modern agricultural development A key.
Key word
Rural Revitalization Strategy; modern agriculture; rural ecological environment; H-T model; green development; agricultural pollution control
I. Introduction
The party's nineteen major decisions and arrangements for Rural Revitalization Strategy were made. In 2018, the Central Committee document No.1, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on the implementation of Rural Revitalization Strategy, said, "implementing the strategy of Rural Revitalization is a major historic task to win the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way and building a modern socialist country in an all-round way", and calls for the concept of green development to lead the Rural Revitalization war. Slightly. However, with the rapid development of China's agriculture, the use of pollution factors is gradually increasing, and the rural ecological environment is under great pressure; in addition, China's agricultural modernization degree is not high, the production efficiency is low, and the wage income of farmers is too small, resulting in a large number of rural population transferred to the city, and then to a certain extent, delaying the development process of agricultural modernization. In reality, it is a complex and systematic project to improve production efficiency, environmental pollution control and farmers' employment conditions. Due to China's small per capita resource share and pressure on food security, agricultural production depends heavily on the input of pollution factors such as chemical fertilizer. Although the use of these pollution factors can improve the efficiency of agricultural production, ensure the long-term effective supply of agricultural products, and bring higher wages to farmers, but it has caused a more serious environmental pollution problem, which makes farmers enjoy the increase of industrial income brought by the improvement of agricultural production efficiency and bear the harm brought by environmental pollution. Li Gucheng, fan Lixia and min Rui found that the technical efficiency of agricultural environment in China during the transformation period was not ideal, and environmental pollution caused great efficiency loss to the whole agricultural development. Porter et al pointed out that the nature of environmental pollution is resource inefficiency. In fact, at present, it is difficult to achieve the synchronous development of agricultural environmental pollution control and production efficiency improvement in China to a certain extent, even in some specific stages or regions, the direction is sometimes the opposite, that is, pollution control may lead to the loss of production efficiency, and the improvement of production efficiency may also lead to the aggravation of environmental pollution. Therefore, unifying the two to study rural employment may provide more in-depth thinking for the implementation of Rural Revitalization.
China is a developing country, and its development has obvious characteristics of dual economic structure. Harris Todaro is an outstanding representative in the study of dual economic problems in developing countries, especially in urban and rural employment. He established the H-T model, considered the flow and differences of factors between urban and rural areas in the process of economic development, and explained the reasons and mechanisms for the transfer of labor factors from rural to urban areas. Corden and Findlay expand the H-T model, and set the capital element to flow between departments based on the consideration of labor element transfer; Chandra, Khan and Gupta add the urban informal sector to the H-T model, which makes the original two sector model evolve into three sector model, so as to have a clearer understanding of the employment problem. However, with the rapid development of economy, a large number of pollutants produced in the production process have caused great damage to the environment, forcing people to pay more and more attention to environmental problems. Some scholars began to try to introduce environmental problems into the H-T model. For example, papanos and daitoh considered the policy effect of environmental tax in the H-T model; sun Shuqin, Li Xiaochun and Dong Zheyu introduced China's urban environmental problems into the H-T model, and investigated the impact of urban industrial environmental pollution on urban employment, social welfare and economic development. But these scholars are not fully involved in the research of agricultural environment and agricultural production efficiency. At present, China's agricultural pollution has become the focus of environmental pollution. In the process of development, people have to think about it and put forward effective solutions. In addition, in the context of the gradual disappearance of population dividend and the implementation of the strategy of rural revitalization, it is necessary to study the impact of agricultural pollution control and the improvement of production efficiency on employment.
This paper will build a dual economic theoretical model including three sectors to explain the impact of agricultural pollution control and production efficiency improvement on employment from the perspective of individual choice of micro workers, and make empirical analysis. First of all, by improving the H-T model, this paper expands the study of environmental problems from the city to the countryside, and studies the impact of agricultural pollution emissions and Governance on employment; secondly, it examines the impact of the improvement of modern agricultural production efficiency on employment, in order to provide thinking for the development of agricultural modernization; and finally, it uses the provincial panel data from 2008 to 2017 to improve agricultural environmental governance and agricultural production efficiency Further analysis of the employment effect.
2、 Theoretical model construction
The improvement of agricultural production efficiency in China has an impact on employment. In the long run, the improvement of agricultural production efficiency can promote the increase of population and increase employment; but in the short run, the improvement of production efficiency of the more technical type will reduce the working hours of the medium skilled and low skilled workers. Chinese rural workers are mainly middle skilled and low skilled workers. When technological progress leads to the improvement of agricultural production efficiency, rural employment will be greatly impacted, so as to reduce the number of employment to a certain extent, and indirectly affect urban employment through urban and rural labor transfer. Xu Jianguo and Zhang Xun use China's provincial panel data for empirical analysis. The improvement of agricultural production efficiency makes the agricultural sector release labor to the non-agricultural sector, thus promoting the development of the non-agricultural sector industry. Environmental pollution and its treatment also have a great impact on employment. Environmental pollution will affect economic growth, and then affect employment. According to Chen Xiangyang, the U-type or n-type relationship between environmental pollution and economic growth may appear in different pollution indicators; Li Xiaochun found through empirical analysis that there is a more obvious synchronization and coordination between the reduction of rural surplus labor and economic growth in China. Of course, in addition to the indirect impact, in fact, the environment can also directly affect the utility of consumers and thus affect the employment location choice of workers. There is also an interaction between environmental pollution control and production efficiency improvement. The improvement of agricultural production efficiency mainly affects the environment through the input of pollution factors, the expansion of output and the increase of pollution discharge; the environmental governance mainly affects the technological progress, production scale and production efficiency through the increase of enterprise cost (production cost and pollution treatment cost) through environmental regulation and other means. Of course, they can also interact in other ways. Jaffe et al. Used the data of American manufacturing industry and rubashkina et al. Used the data of EU manufacturing industry for empirical research and found that there was a significant positive correlation between the intensity of environmental regulation and productivity. In general, agricultural pollution control and production efficiency have a certain cross effect on employment, which is worth further investigation.
This paper assumes that the economy consists of three sectors: urban industry, modern agriculture and traditional agriculture. In terms of the use of production factors, it is assumed that the urban industrial sector and the modern agricultural sector use labor and capital for production, while the traditional agricultural sector only uses labor factors for production, and labor can move freely between sectors while the use of capital is temporarily unchanged. Because of the existence of rigidity under wages, urban unemployment will occur in the urban sector.
（1） Basic model
First, we build the basic model according to the H-T model. Suppose that the production functions of urban industrial sector, modern agricultural sector and traditional agricultural sector are respectively:
（2） The improved model after introducing environment and production efficiency
In addition, because the wages of workers in the modern agricultural sector are higher than those in the traditional agricultural sector, and the natural environment they enjoy is the same, in theory, the labor in the traditional agricultural sector will continue to transfer to modern agriculture, but in fact, there is a certain scope for this kind of labor transfer. From the perspective of the model, in the process of labor transfer from the traditional agricultural sector to the modern agricultural sector, the modern agriculture develops and the output increases. However, when the output increases, the emissions of rural pollution will be increased and the consumption utility of farmers will be reduced, which has a restraining effect on the labor transfer (in reality, other factors will also affect the traditional agricultural sector's labor transfer to the modern agriculture Industrial sector transfer, such as the technical requirements of workers and the distance between the construction site and the living place, etc.), when the rural pollution emissions reach a certain degree, the rural workers will choose to transfer to the city; in addition, because the marginal production efficiency of labor is decreasing, the transfer of labor from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture also has a certain scope. The above model just considers the driving effect of the development of modern agriculture on the whole countryside. Therefore, in the investigation of the labor consumption utility, this paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the modern agricultural sector and the traditional agricultural sector.
3、 Theoretical analysis of employment effect
Next, from two perspectives of theoretical analysis: first, how agricultural environmental governance affects employment; second, how the efficiency of modern agricultural production affects employment.
（1） The effect of modern agricultural pollution discharge and treatment on Employment
Among them, e is the elasticity of urban labor demand, u is the urban unemployment rate. (11) The results show that the employment impact of agricultural environmental governance on rural sector is related to the elasticity of urban labor demand; the impact of agricultural environmental governance on urban unemployment is not only related to the elasticity of urban labor demand, but also related to the level of urban unemployment rate itself.
Therefore, we have further consulted the relevant literature of labor demand elasticity in China, and we can know that the range of labor demand elasticity in Chinese industrial enterprises is (- 0.75, - 0.15). According to this, we can get that the symbols of the two formulas of formula (11) are both negative, so that the symbols of formula (10) can be determined preliminarily, that is, the treatment and discharge of modern agricultural pollution and environment