Original title: Tesla: Cost Planning Source:
CITIC
Securities Research
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abstract
Upgrading of pure electric passenger vehicle products, the importance of performance / cost performance at the same time
After years of development, there are many high-quality products of pure electric passenger vehicles at the middle end and below in China, with continuous improvement of driving conditions and considerable control of 100 km power consumption; in 2019, the sales of class a vehicles accounted for more than 50%, but the sales of class B and above models are still low.
Tesla Model 3 is localized and reduced to less than 300000 yuan after subsidy. In the context of market sales volume correction, its sales volume in January 2020 was 2625, which led Panasonic power battery supply to be shortlisted in the top ten. Model 3 localization is really starting
New energy
In the middle and high-end automobile market, the sales structure of new energy passenger vehicles in China is expected to further converge with that of fuel passenger vehicles; the requirements of consumers for performance and cost performance, and the company's requirements for profit all lead to the increase of localization rate and further reduction of product cost.
CTP battery may play a significant role in the supply chain
In 2020, Tesla is expected to realize the transformation of localization rate of its parts from 30% to nearly 100%. Many enterprises have entered the Tesla supply chain, including power battery and thermal management system, electric motor control, BIW, central control system, BMS, chassis, etc.
Considering the threshold of model 3 vehicle parts, high technical threshold of power battery pack, and the largest value of single vehicle, Tesla is expected to take the localization of new energy vehicles supply chain to a higher level as a whole.
Ningde Era
The ternary CTP battery pack significantly improves the vehicle's endurance; if the Fe Li CTP battery pack is used for the standard endurance model, the technical parameters can be fully benchmarked and play a strong cost reduction role.
Tesla's localization reduces costs and improves competitiveness significantly
Under the basic assumption that the gross profit rate of model 3 in 2019 is 20%, the long-term dual motor version is mainly shipped, and the cost reduction space for localization of different parts varies from 5% to 15%, we calculate that the price reduction range of the standard continuous version corresponding to the 25% gross profit rate is respectively more than 90000 yuan / 28.3% (along the battery technology route) and nearly 110000 yuan / 33.4% (the battery technology route is replaced by Ningde iron lithium CTP). In the latter scenario, the price of model 3 standard renewal will be as low as less than 220000 yuan; for example, if Shanghai factory subsequently produces model 3 long endurance dual motor version and model y, high localization rate can also effectively reduce costs. In addition, other leading international automobile enterprises may also fully consider the positive role of China's new energy vehicle supply chain.
Investment evaluation and suggestions
It is suggested that investors pay attention to Ningde times, a leading global power battery company, and its suppliers: positive materials:
Rong Bai Technology
,
Rising technology
Long term lithium
Xiamen tungsten industry
,
German nanometer
; negative material:
Zhongke electric
Kaijin energy, etc.; electrolyte:
Godsend
,
New states
,
Jiangsu Cathay Pacific
The diaphragm:
Grace group
; frame:
Keda Li
; electrical components:
Hongfa shares
。 It is suggested that investors pay attention to the high-quality target of Tesla industrial chain (the corresponding target is covered by automobile, machinery, non-ferrous, electronic and chemical teams respectively).
risk analysis
The sales volume and cost of Tesla Model 3 are lower than expected, the listing progress of model y is lower than expected, and the technical competitiveness advantage of Tesla products is reduced; the promotion of CTP battery in Ningde era is lower than expected, the performance growth is lower than expected, and the cost reduction is lower than expected; the safety accident risk of new energy vehicles, the industrial policy of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, and the infrastructure construction is lower than expected.
One
Pure electric passenger car, under "both necessary and necessary"
1. Pure electric passenger vehicles are becoming the mainstream of new energy vehicles
China's new energy vehicle industry has experienced the explosion of passenger cars, especially pure electric passenger cars. In 2019, although the total volume slightly recovered, the scale of production and sales still reached more than 1.2 million vehicles.
2. Sales growth slows down and the product structure of pure electric passenger vehicles upgrades
With the decline of subsidies, the growth rate of pure electric passenger vehicle sales slowed down, but the upgrading trend of product structure remained unchanged, and the proportion of class a vehicles increased year by year.
In the same year, the decline of subsidies did not affect the structure of vehicle sales. No matter before or after the recession, no matter the demand of household and operation, the proportion of class a vehicles is generally higher than 50%.
After years of development, China's pure electric passenger vehicles have many high-quality products in the middle and lower models. The A00 model has a working condition endurance of more than 250km, the a model has a working condition endurance of more than 400 or even 500km as standard, and the 100km power consumption has been controlled to a certain extent. Middle and high-end products with certain technical competitiveness (endurance, power consumption, power, etc.) are also available from time to time. The trend of product optimization and upgrading is irreversible.
Compared with the total sales volume of passenger vehicles in 2019, new energy vehicles are closer in structure and passenger vehicles as a whole, and the proportion gap of class a vehicles is significantly narrowed, but there is still a certain gap between class B and above models.
3. Performance + cost performance, domestic Tesla Model 3 wins great expectation
Tesla Model 3 is the current global star model. In 2020, the sales volume is more than 300000, ranking first in the world, about equal to the total sales volume of 2-5; the advantage is more obvious by the total value.
Within Tesla, under the background of the sales decline of model s / X in 2019, the total sales volume / proportion of model 3 continues to increase. The annual sales volume of 300000 vehicles is the main component of the annual sales volume of 367500 new energy vehicles of the company. In each quarter of 2019, its sales volume accounted for more than 80%.
Model 3 performs well in many aspects, such as electronic and electrical architecture, auxiliary driving, OTA upgrading, energy charging, power consumption of endurance, etc. Taking the endurance, power consumption and servicing quality as examples, the model 3 dual motor long endurance version performs well on the basis value of integral adjustment coefficient X-Y chart of pure electric vehicle type reflected in the "double integral" policy of 2021-2023 (Amendment to measures for the parallel management of average fuel consumption and new energy vehicle integral of passenger vehicle enterprises), and the standard upgraded version of endurance also does not perform well Common (the longer the endurance, the lower the power consumption under the condition of the same curb weight, the closer to the upper right corner in the figure).
According to the model configuration (mainly different in terms of endurance and power), the pricing of model 3 standard endurance upgrade version, medium endurance version, dual motor long endurance version and performance version are different, about 39000 US dollars, 45000 US dollars, 51000 US dollars and 62000 US dollars respectively (slightly different in different periods). The price of domestic model 3 has been adjusted several times. At the beginning of 2020, the price will be reduced to 299000 yuan (including the basic version of auxiliary driving function, excluding the charging post), which is equivalent to giving all the state subsidies back to consumers and giving basic version of auxiliary driving function.
Compared with the imported version of standard endurance upgrade, the domestic version has a price advantage of about 40000 yuan and a hand in price advantage of more than 60000 yuan. Compared with domestic competitors, the price is close to
BYD
Tang (about 230000 yuan basic version / 290000 yuan dual motor version), GAC aion LX (250000 yuan basic version / 280000 Yuan Long Endurance version), Xiaopeng P7 (240000 yuan), lower than Weilai es8 / ES6 (468 / 358000 yuan). Model 3 is made in China, and "performance" and "cost performance" are well considered.
In January 2020, the novel coronavirus pneumonia production in China was reduced by 52%, and the output of power batteries was about 2.32GWh, down by 53% compared with the same period last year. (under the influence of the early 2019 subsidies, which corresponded to the high base number, the disturbance of the Spring Festival and the new crown pneumonia epidemic), Tesla Model 3 produced 2625 vehicles, which led Panasonic to rank the top 4 of the battery installed capacity. Although affected by the epidemic, the company has a special advantage of 48 thousand and 500. The Shanghai factory of SRA has resumed production on February 10, and the delivery time of model 3 is currently scheduled for the second quarter of 2020. The sales volume of model 3 in the whole year is almost determined by its supply rhythm, and the supply exceeds the demand rhythm or runs through the whole year.
We believe that the localization of Tesla Model 3 has really opened the middle and high-end market of China's new energy vehicles, and the sales structure of China's new energy passenger vehicles is expected to further converge with that of fuel passenger vehicles. On the other hand, consumers' requirements for performance and cost performance, and the company's requirements for profit all lead to the increase of localization rate and further reduction of product cost.
Two
CTP battery may play a significant role in the supply chain
1. Many parts enterprises in China enter Tesla supply chain
In 2020, Tesla is expected to realize the transformation of localization rate of its parts from 30% to nearly 100%. Many enterprises have entered the Tesla supply chain, and the parts include power battery and battery management system, thermal management system, electric motor control, BIW, chassis, central control system, etc. In addition, many battery material enterprises are suppliers of Panasonic, LG Chemical and Ningde era.
The value of single vehicle and technical threshold jointly determine the position of parts suppliers. Among the domestic parts that have been matched with Tesla at present,
Topp group
Chassis structure and forged aluminum control arm
CXS shares
Transmission housing
Long letter Technology
The central control screen module
Three flower wisdom control
Thermal management components
Evenly distributed electron
The value of BMS sensors and airbags is more than 2000 yuan.
Considering the threshold of model 3 vehicle parts, the electronic control core parts power semiconductor silicon carbide MOSFET technology threshold is the highest, with a single car value of nearly 10000 yuan, but the technical gap between China's industrial chain and Cree, Italy France semiconductor is relatively high, and the localization is difficult; the power battery pack technology threshold is high, and the single car value is the largest, and the independent power battery supply to Tesla is expected to make new energy vehicles The status of domestic vehicle supply chain has stepped to a higher level as a whole.
2. CTP technology in Ningde era has the ability to strengthen Tesla's competitiveness in many aspects
Tesla and Ningde times, the world's top power battery supplier, will gradually cooperate. For Tesla, musk has announced Tesla Model Y's mass production plan in China and the sales volume in the future; musk claims that its battery suppliers include Panasonic, LG Chemical and Ningde era, and has a deep understanding of the battery field. In the era of Ningde, officials confirmed the basic information of cooperation between the two sides.
CTP (module free battery pack) technology is advanced in Ningde era. The world's first CTP battery pack of Ningde era appeared in October 2019, and the first model was BAIC new energy EU5. This is the first passenger car project after Ningde times disclosed CTP battery pack technology at Frankfurt auto show. As CTP battery pack omits the assembly of battery modules, compared with the traditional battery pack, its volume utilization rate is improved, the number of parts is reduced, and the production efficiency is improved. After being put into use, the manufacturing cost of power battery may be reduced to a certain extent, and the quality / volume energy density of battery pack will be improved. Compared with the cylindrical battery technology, its volume group efficiency has obvious advantages. CTP battery pack is compatible with ternary / lithium iron power battery.
In terms of the connection between the cell and BMS, according to the relevant patents of Ningde times, the cell and Battery Management System BMS are fixed in the battery case through a fixed structure, and the inside of the BMS case and between the cell and the cell are filled with heat-conducting adhesive for heat dissipation and shock absorption. The electric core is built in the upper and lower shell, the shell is filled with heat-conducting adhesive, and the pressure between the side wall of the electric core and the shell of the electric core is built in